In the wake of Donald Trump’s win last November, conservative America (and indeed the President himself) has been leaning on the mandate from “Red America” to take the country in a more conservative direction, which, if a mandate really exists, is their perogative. In support of their claim, they often offer a map of America that looks like this.
That sure looks like a mandate, but is it? This is a geographical map (by county) of the popular vote, with “winners” in red or blue. This is what the conservative mandate looks like in a “winner-take-all” representation of the 2016 election. It’s also what most network news outlets present because it is very easy to understand; it’s also pretty misleading and maybe divisive.
However, as the old saying goes, “Land doesn’t vote; people vote.”
I propose that we ditch this standard red and blue political “winners” map and take a real, meaningful look at our electorate as it really is.
A more honest (or, at least factually accurate) map would show how truly purple the nation is. That map would represent voting, not winning. On this map, some parts are more red, and some parts are more blue, but the truth is that even the rural/urban divide isn’t so wide as the standard media representation.
This map is “blended,” showing how much narrower the gap is, even in areas of strong “red” or “blue” tendencies. It represents the relative number of voters going left (blue) or right (red).
Still, the geographical vastness of our nation on this map diminishes our appreciation of the density of American population centers, which are visually under-represented by geography. So, while the “standard map” makes it look like it’s us against them, this map at least helps us understand that “them” is your neighbors, no matter where you live.
The problem with the way we view the data is that a geographical map doesn’t represent population, it represents area and the American heartland his huge.
Here is another data-visualization that better represents population density, which I think is often overlooked; the 3D map represents the relative population densities (as height) to show how so few and such small areas can account for so much of the (blue) vote. The left-leaning electorate is concentrated…very concentrated in our urban centers. It’s not that America is mostly red politically. Geographically, it is mostly red (well, purple, really), but the red areas of the map are so sparsely populated that it gives a false impression that the electorate must also be red. It is not. As a nation of individuals, we’re pretty evenly divided.
Remember, the current president WON with a minority of popular votes (assuming you don’t believe his claims of fraudulent voting). The problem with the way we view the data is that a geographical map doesn’t represent the population as it’s distributed across our geography; it represents area and the American heartland his huge.
-previous maps created by Robert J. Vanderbei, Princeton University
One more map (technically, a cartogram), this time from Mark Newman of The University of Michigan. This one distorts geography to equitably represent actual voting…essentially every vote is represented by the same physical space and it shows how truly purple the U.S. is. Notice how distorting the size of counties to adjust for the population density of blue areas renders the vast sea of red as roughly equal to the concentrated blue from the simpler map we started with…and even where there is pronounced red and blue, there are still great stretches of purple.
None of these maps are lies. The first map is an accurate representation of who won each county. It is not, however, an accurate view of voting or, broadly, American political views. The last map is an accurate portrayal of the popular vote but an obvious distortion of geography.
Political winners choose which maps to use to advance their agendas. Media outlets choose which maps to use for dramatic effect or to present a particular point of view.
I say, the truth is nuanced and we need to parse our language carefully so that we don’t mislead and divide. Each map presents a part of a larger true tale. We need them all to see the whole truth.
We’re evenly split. America is purple.